Big picture - both teams have issues to address
This series is a bit of an oddity, with two sides at below full strength, with a number of big names rested for more pressing engagements, facing off in a format that's taken a bit of a back seat in terms of wider relevance, with no immediate world event to build towards. It's also an oddity in that it's four matches long, rather than three or five.
For all that, it's been extremely competitive, and at 1-1 could be shaping up for a blockbuster second half. After sharing honours on the coast, South Africa and India now move to the pace, true bounce and high altitude of the Highveld with all to play for.
Given that both sides are testing out young players and new combinations, neither team will read too much into how individuals have fared so far. But there are broad, team-level issues they may want to look into.
South Africa have faced 16 overs from India's two wristspinners, and scored 91 while losing 12 wickets. The format is different, but Ravi Bishnoi and, in particular, Varun Chakravarthy seem to be exerting the same sort of influence that Kuldeep Yadav and Yuzvendra Chahal did on the ODI leg of India's tour of this country in 2017-18, when they shared 35 wickets in five games.
India's issue is structural, and one that's cropped up from time to time over recent years: their batting in the first two T20Is seemed to stop at No. 7. They only scored 40 runs in the last six overs of the first match, and failed to turn Sanju Samson's storming century into a truly awe-inspiring total. In the second, they lost early wickets, and never recovered thanks in part to this lack of depth.
How the two teams sort out or work around these issues could well determine how this series finishes.
Form guide
South Africa WLLWL (last five completed T20Is, most recent first)
India LWWWW
In the spotlight - David Miller and Abhishek Sharma
In this series so far, David Miller has been out twice to Varun - the second off a peach that turned past his outside edge and bowled him for a golden duck - in 13 balls, while scoring 14 runs off them. Miller prides himself on his spin game, which he has transformed over the last three years, and will undoubtedly be working extra-hard on picking Varun's variations and getting on top of him.
He announced himself with an audacious 47-ball 100 against Zimbabwe in only his second appearance, but his eight other T20I innings have brought Abhishek Sharma only 70 runs, with only two of them going past the ten-ball mark. Abhishek's no-holds-barred approach, which is exactly what earned him his international call-up, comes with the in-built risk of early failure, and getting the best out of him will require India's team management to ensure they judge him on processes and not outcomes, helping him become a more rounded player while backing his attacking instincts.
Team news
Lutho Sipamla has joined South Africa's squad for the third and fourth T20Is, and the fast bowler comes into the series with form behind him. He picked up the Player-of-the-Match award for his four-wicket haul in the final of the CSA T20 Challenge in late October, and followed it up with another match-winning contribution for Lions against Titans, a first-innings four-wicket haul in the CSA 4-Day Series. If South Africa bring him into their XI, either Andile Simelane or the legspinner Nqaba Peter may have to make way.
South Africa (possible): 1 Ryan Rickelton, 2 Reeza Hendricks, 3 Aiden Markram (capt), 4 Tristan Stubbs, 5 Heinrich Klaasen (wk), 6 David Miller, 7 Marco Jansen, 8 Andile Simelane/Lutho Sipamla, 9 Gerald Coetzee, 10 Keshav Maharaj, 11 Nqabayomzi Peter
There is no quick-fix for India's batting depth issue within their squad, but they could try and mix things up nonetheless. Three players in their squad are still awaiting their first T20I caps: fast bowlers Vijaykumar Vyshak and Yash Dayal and the explosive lower-middle-order hitter Ramandeep Singh.
India (possible): 1 Sanju Samson (wk), 2 Abhishek Sharma, 3 Suryakumar Yadav (capt), 4 Tilak Varma, 5 Hardik Pandya, 6 Rinku Singh, 7 Axar Patel, 8 Arshdeep Singh, 9 Ravi Bishnoi, 10 Avesh Khan, 11 Varun Chakravarthy
Pitch and conditions
Centurion hosted two incredibly high-scoring T20Is in the space of two days last year. First, South Africa clattered their way to 131 in a rain-shortened, 11-overs-a-side contest, only for West Indies to haul down their target with three balls to spare. Then the hosts exacted a spectacular revenge, with Quinton de Kock's 44-ball 100 helping them haul down 259 in just 18.5 overs and set a new record for the highest T20I chase. Expect plenty of runs, then, though the steep bounce at the venue could also bring fast bowlers into play if there's a little bit of help from the surface. A clear and pleasant day is expected.
But why did India give just one over to Axar Patel when spinners were doing well?
Stats and trivia
Of the six South African grounds that have hosted at least three T20Is since the start of the decade, Centurion has been the highest-scoring, with batting teams going at 10.90 per over and averaging 33.25 runs per wicket.
Miller (81) has the most catches by a non-wicketkeeper in all T20Is.
Varun already has eight wickets in this series, and has a great chance, with two matches remaining, of going past the Indian record of most wickets in a bilateral T20I series of nine, held jointly by R Ashwin and Bishnoi.
Since his debut in July 2022, no Full Member player has taken more wickets than Arshdeep's 89 in T20Is. Arshdeep is well on course to take over as India's highest wicket-taker in the format, needing just eight more to go past Chahal's tally of 96.
Quotes
"Everyone on the team hates losing. In the first game, we didn't play at our best, if we can call it as it is. And then the second game, the whole focus was just to try and give us the best chance to win. In the second game, we were a lot more focused on winning those small battles because in T20 two or three overs is actually [significant], there's a lot that can happen. So for us, it was just a focus point in terms of just trying to win those small battles. And I think we won most of the small battles, even though it was a low-scoring game."
South Africa allrounder Marco Jansen
"I've had a really good bowling partner in Jassi bhai. He has helped me enormously in taking a lot of wickets by creating pressure from the other end. So a lot of credit goes to him as well. But the main thing is how well I can adapt to the conditions and the situations of the game, how I can attack the batsman early on and take some early wickets. And even at the death how I can outsmart them and bring the game back into our hands.
India fast bowler Arshdeep Singh on Jasprit Bumrah's role in his growth as an international cricketer
